Yes, you heard that right, the economy lost full-time jobs. While the federal government is reporting “blow-out” job gains, the reality is the jobs are all part-time. Full-time jobs have decreased. Have you had to take a pat-time job due to inflation? Have your hours been decreased? According to a new report from the federal government’s Bureau of Labor Statistics in […]
The following chart is a comparison of total change in prices for consumers. Spending more money on these day to day items limits housing affordability. That goes for renting or buying. Paying 30% more for utilities, 50% more for gasoline and 20% more to replace an aging car sucks a lot of money out of every paycheck. This inflation comparison […]
Everyone is the US realizes that inflation has been way more than the Biden administration has published. Recent academic studies show Bidenflation peaked over 18%! Biden apologists wonder why people don’t believe the government. Biden economic apologist Paul Krugman tries to explain to those he considers dumber than he and Biden. It’s true that most Americans have a negative view […]
Mortgage education will increase the more you know about the mortgage process and mortgage pricing. We are not trying to sell you a mortgage! We want to educate! Is it time for an Adjustable Rate Mortgage (ARM)? Which one? Buy the book at Amazon — Winning Mortgage, Winning Home. Afterwards, you are better prepared to qualify for a mortgage, afford […]
Electricity prices have soared – and people are noticing. And it is getting harder to keep the lights on since electricity blackouts, power outages, government policy and supply constraints make hamper reliability. “Green” energy is a meme and catchword repeated endlessly. In fact, some members of Congress and President Biden have endorsed the “Green New Deal (GND).” Let’s look at […]
In a recent speech US Treasury Secretary Yellen: High food and rent prices were key factors in negative economic outlook. Consistently higher prices Americans pay for food and rent vs. pre-pandemic levels hammer American citizens. Although Biden and Yellen say inflation is coming down, that means only that prices are not increasing as fast as they were. Prices continue going […]
Recently, Bloomberg published a study of how inflation impacts consumer. While prices aren’t rising as fast as they were in 2022, they are still rising faster than anytime in the past 10-15 years. This is a direct result of policies of the Biden Administration, congressional spending abuse, and poor policy of Biden’s Federal Reserve. Consumers, middle America, and working people/families […]
Expect inflation through 2025 to remain elevated. It may persist longer. Based on extraordinary federal government spending, waves of extra cash will flow into the economy for at least 3-4 more years. Massive injections of extra cash lead to high inflation. Every. Single. Time. Few, if any, exceptions can be found anywhere in history. The Federal Reserve did the absolute […]
Housing Market Obliterated: Pending Home Sales Post Record Drop As Deal Cancellations, Price Cuts Hit Record High. (Comment: Bidenomics, the Federal Reserve and the housing market in 2023). Be prepared to get safe or profit with a copy of Winning Mortgage, Winning Home from Amazon. (Updated from November 11, 2022). Home prices cooled again in January, 2023. According to the […]
The last half of 2022 was a difficult year for the mortgage industry and here come mortgage changes in 2023. The massive drop in the volume of mortgages (down perhaps 80% or more from the year earlier) caused many, many layoffs, bankruptcies and closures of mortgage companies in late 2022. Cheap, easy money disappeared. Where buyers essentially faced auctions to […]
US Power Prices Rise Most in 41 Years as Inflation Endures. Bidenflation is killing consumers with astronomical increases as Energy prices soar again and again with Biden’s war on fossil fuels. Your electricity price hasn’t risen to $1000 per month yet, but Biden only needs a bit more time to get there. September 13, 2022: August electricity bills for US […]
Each month, the National Association of Home Builders partners with Wells Fargo to gauge the health and outlook of new home builders. The monthly survey looks at sales, potential buyers looking for houses, and other factors in compiling a monthly index. The index has shown a downward trend for much of 2022. In July, we saw the Housing Market Index […]
In early 2022, we set out market predictions for mid to late 2022 for the Dow Jones average, Nasdaq, Bitcoin, Housing Prices, and Inflation in light of Biden administration and Fed incompetence. How have we fared? The post from February can be found here (later updates on inflation and other matters follow in separate posts here, here and elsewhere). We […]
Yet another 40 year inflation high. The federal government says 9.1% for consumer prices as of July 13th data, but falling slightly into the mid 8’s for August and September. A new high virtually every month as inflation keeps rising. Look at the recent trend instead of that 9.1% annual number. The last 6 month running rate is 10.4% and […]
In late 2022 and now 2023, we are now seeing a reversal of the froth infecting the market from the Fed actions of 2019, 2020, and 2021. The Fed has already announced it will reverse the actions it has taken to cause massive price increases. For 2023, froth in the market is dead. The FOMO by homebuyers has taken a […]
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released consumer price data on Tuesday, September 13. Again it surprised economists and investors by continuing to run very high. Readers here are not surprised. Our posts show continued expectations for high inflation. Expect it may run high fur another 2-3 years. Maybe not 8-10% high, but quite possibly. Once inflation jumps as it […]
Reports are piling up that mortgage fraud is on the rise. For now, the rise focuses on non-QM mortgages. Why? A QM mortgage has extensive requirements in underwriting verification. These verifications include employment, income, source of funds, and other items. Mortgage fraud played a central role in the 2008 crisis. Blame fell on lenders for not doing enough verification. Virtually […]
Is the Biden engineered inflation leading to foreclosures? If so, will it cascade into 2008 level panic? Many actions taken over the past two years eerily mimic the events and policies leading up to 2008. Read our other posts which list a number of actions taken on the path to a possible financial meltdown. Is it time to not buy […]
The question is how much? Multiple recent studies from economists, the Federal Reserve, analysts, and media pin the spike in inflation squarely on Biden, concluding Biden worsened inflation. One major contributor- the partisan $1.9 billion American Rescue Plan passed in March 21. The massive spending law sent $1,400 checks for each person in a family, expanded unemployment insurance and child […]
Down payments and risky mortgages — of course the down payment matters. Winning Mortgage, Winning Home covers a variety of ways to manage the down payment amount against the loan pricing. The interest rate paid on a loan has a detailed scale of penalties covered in the book and the book provides insights on using them to your advantage. But […]
During the week of February 21, eight federal agencies joined together to tell lenders to reach out to lend to poor credit risks. They didn’t actually use those words, but the directions were clear. The last time we saw this was the run up to 2008. Will the letter convince lenders to lend to bad credit risks? After 2008, lenders […]
News out this week from the Dallas region of the Fed. The report calls the Federal Reserve late again in continuing bad policies. But this time it focuses on a potential housing bubble building for which the Fed bears substantial responsibility. In news from CNN covering the research done by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, it outlines the bubble […]
If you live in the Miami area and paid $1000/month in rent, what happens when you get a renewal letter at $1400/month. Or paying $2000/month and your renewal is nearly $2800/month. According to CoreLogic, a nationwide real estate data firm, single family rents are jumping nearly 40% in the Miami area. That’s the fastest in the country. But many other […]
Have you properly adjusted your budget for the cost of your new home? Did you consider the soaring food and energy cost factors in mortgage default in order to avoid being a foreclosure statistic? Winning Mortgage, Winning Home provides detailed discussions about budgeting to avoid mortgage default. You’ve already seen prices soaring for food, groceries, and energy. Oil prices have […]
Listing your house for sale? Looking to buy a house and having difficulty competing? If you are in the market to either buy or sell, chances are an iBuyer may be lurking. What is an iBuyer when you look to sell or buy? Offerpad, Opendoor, Zillow and Redfin were the four major firms in 2021 acting as iBuyers. These buyers […]
Many today argue whether the period from 2020 to 2022 has been a bubble in prices and whether price warnings should be more accentuated. There should be no argument. The Federal Reserve and federal government created a bubble across most types of assets – housing, crypto, stocks, bonds, art, etc. With 2022 in the history books, average home prices in […]
In a prior posts, we asked whether the Fed is serious about fighting inflation. The Federal Reserve notoriously was buying $120 billion per month in bonds and mortgages to prop up excess government spending, keep interest rates artificially low, and boost the economy. Unfortunately, the geniuses at the Fed had no idea when it was too much. They are the […]
In late 2021, the two Government Sponsored Enterprises (GSEs) added the ability for landlords to provide positive rental payment history as a loan consideration. For some reason, negative history will be ignored. The GSEs are Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Together, they control about $6 trillion or more in mortgages. Two mortgage gorillas. For example, Freddie Mac provided a brief […]
National Lampoon, a magazine devoted to satire, had P J O’Rourke as one of the key contributors. They were behind movies such as Animal House, Vacation, and others. P.J. O’Rourke passed away this month. Alfred E. Neuman was the poster child for the magazine with the phrase, “what, me worry?” Every month, the University of Michigan measures how consumers feel […]
The soaring housing prices over 2020 and 2021 have been a windfall for many owners. The rock bottom interest rates pushed prices up but also created a separate category of beneficiaries. Not mentioned may be the owners facing foreclosure filings who have been able to sell or re-work mortgages. The federal government shipped out trillions of dollars for aid, kept […]
Today, many wonder “where is the economy going” and what are politicians doing. But above all, what are housing effects, inflation effects. And does anyone in the current administration actually understand economics. In summary, it is possible that the administration will inject additional inflation. About two-thirds of the country believe that the country is headed in the wrong direction. That’s […]
The latest reading for the Zillow Index of US rents shows no letup in the worst bout of housing inflation in US history. Year on year, the average US rent rose 14%, according to the real estate website. Shelter cost accounts for a third of the US government’s Consumer Price Index. But the official numbers have lagged far behind private-sector […]
The Federal Reserve Bank has been one of the biggest causes of inflation in the last two years. Is the Federal Reserve serious about getting out of the business of increasing inflation? The three biggest causes if ranked: Federal government overspending and excess stimulus 2020 and 2021 Bad federal government policies in 2021 Federal Reserve policy mismanagement 2020 and 2021 […]
A lot of numbers came out this week which put a spotlight on interest rates, housing and inflation. All of these areas link together. An excerpt and paraphrase from New Republic Capital Markets views follows along with informaiton from Asia Times. We added commentary in places to clarify, but included links to original information. Larry Summers (Treasury Secretary under Bill […]
Paying for flood insurance on your house? As flood insurance rates soar this year, and over the next decade or two, look out for financial pain. A re-write and update of flood insurance rates by FEMA raises prices across the board. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) manages the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). Federal law caps the annual increases […]
Second Home/High Balance Mortgage Costs Rise in new loan fees to be imposed by Fannie Mae (FNMA) and Freddie Mac (FHLMC). Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac represent the largest mortgage owners–the gorillas of mortgage. Known as government sponsored enterprises (GSE’s), they own or guarantee most US mortgages–in excess of $5 trillion. Both FNMA and FHLMC went broke in 2008. The […]
Every year, more than 1 million mortgage applications are denied. Avoid a loan denial and being part of this statistic! Borrowers have tools to turn a loan denial into an approval by planning before applying. The 1 million denials do not include the number of applications which were withdrawn. Many borrowers apply to more than one lender. The Consumer Finance […]
Who said that the mortgage market couldn’t duplicate pre-2008? What about betting on interest only? That’s right, companies have resurrected interest only mortgages. And interest only options for a mortgage have expanded. Look at our checklist of pre-2008 like repetition in our post on Wacky Politicians. You can now add a new bullet to the 2008-like risks in that post: […]
Fannie Mae (FNMA) and Freddie Mac (FHLMC) represent the gorillas in the home loan market. Since both are in conservatorship (they went broke in 2008) under the federal government, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) exerts total control over them. These two entities are referred to as Government Sponsored Enterprises (GSEs) since they have always had a federal government related […]
The housing market experienced substantial price appreciation over the past 24 months. Recently, the rate of increase has fallen. In mid 2021, various reports showed the price of an average house up about 20% year over year. But the number of existing home sales fell for three straight months before a brief stabilization. In November, the sales index fell 2.2% […]
Updated. EXERCISE CAUTION in all home and market investments for the next 60 days! Many data points released on November 24 show the Federal Reserve has room to become more aggressive in fighting inflation. With the Federal Reserve pushing rates up now, their previous rate forecast looks incompetent. The Federal Reserve ignored the broad evaluations of top economists of every […]
Updated. Finally, the Federal Reserve Wakes Up to Its Blundering Policy Mis-Management. It took a long time, but apparently the Fed recognized what we have said for most of the year. The Fed is the primary culprit in policy mis-management in causing runaway inflation. Federal Reserve officials intensified their battle against the hottest inflation in a generation. It shifted the […]
As predicted in our prior posts, inflation continues to accelerate. Although there may be occasional blips, inflation has trended upward with the current massive spending by Washington. Combined with the admitted major errors by the Federal Reserve on interest rates, most in America continue to see prices jump everywhere on everything. Will this reverse or slow down? That depends on […]
You probably know someone who would like help understanding how to get approved. Or how to get better mortgage knowledge and a better rate, maybe the best interest rate for a mortgage. Or help understanding the reverse mortgage process. News commentary and helpful discussions can be found in the News/Commentary articles. Browse articles individually or by category of interest. Feel […]
Most Americans have seen energy costs skyrocket this fall/winter. Homeowners in the United States might be in for a costly winter. Oil and natural gas prices continue to climb higher as supply struggles to keep up with demand. Prices continued to increase as the temperatures dropped across the country. The price of natural gas used to heat homes across the […]
Why Pay Rent? In previous posts, we covered an early bill introduced in Congress to provide grants, not tax credits, to certain individuals to use towards a down payment. Joe Biden had proposed a tax credit, but the plan morphed a bit. Now those wacky politicians plan to top themselves! It’s common for government programs to try to pick winners […]
Forbearance jumped into the forefront of housing issues in March 2020 with the beginning of Covid. The federal government immediately enacted a plan to allow homeowners to defer payments on mortgages. While it had the ability to do that on mortgages controlled by the federal government, it did not have the authority to do so on private mortgages. The federal […]
Who hasn’t gone to the Zillow website to look at a house value estimate or to pretend your house is worth what they say or more? Zillow put all that data to use buying homes. When web surfers searched more frequently about a particular submarket, Zillow’s AI concentrated bidding for houses there. The computer algorithms created a ”Zillow Effect” where […]
With an update below. And Zillow hits the skids!. The news cycle blares apocalyptic news every day about the state of the current housing market. FOMO shouts buy now! Let’s check FOMO vs common sense choices. Like every story these days, news programs cycle repetitively through any event like its Armageddon. They throw more and more fear into the anecdotes […]
Home inspections should be a cornerstone of your mortgage and purchase process. Waiving inspections likely requires deep pockets. After all, what could go wrong? Why Hire a Home Inspector? The link provides an in-depth look as to what a home inspection can provide. But a home inspection can only do so much. A number of specific items may go beyond […]
If you are a first time buyer with a limited down-payment, FNMA (Fannie Mae) requires a home buyer education course. The course must be completed before a lender can make you a loan using FNMA funds. This also applies to borrowers with low-to-moderate income and to those borrowers without a credit score. Prepare to ante at least $75 for the […]
The proposed first time home buyer tax credit was introduced in Congress along with additional housing related bills. But, these may create problems in housing market and drive up prices, affecting buyers across the board. Industry groups who want to sell more houses have concerns that it will make homes less affordable for the low to moderate income buyer is […]
Headwinds in the housing market for new homes has dampened sales volumes. The market rally to ever higher sales and prices slowed dramatically in the second quarter of 2021, as we predicted. Sales of newly built homes fell for third consecutive month. New home sales continued to slip in June, falling 6.6% from May to a pace of only 676,000, […]
Lumber prices continue to fall from the peak. From a level of about $400 per thousand board feet, prices quadrupled to more than $1700 per thousand board feet in FOMO buying panic. Since the peak around 60 days ago, approximately 80% to 85% of the increase in lumber prices has evaporated. Prices of other materials such as copper (wiring and […]
In earlier posts, we outlined our outlook for an opportune time to purchase a home. In this June purchase window update, we see many factors continuing to move in the direction predicted. On June 16, the Federal Reserve Board of Governors announced no rate hike was imminent and minimal increases expected through the end of 2023. Additionally, the short term […]
Home buyers aren’t just competing with each other for homes. Buyer competition comes from Wall Street and public investment groups. These groups have been funneling cash to purchase homes to rent out. At least one projection expects these groups to pour $40 billion into buying homes to rent over the next 18 months. Say the average home price is now […]
Nearly 3 months ago, we provided discussion of a likely advantageous purchase window which addressed home prices, home availability, the mortgage market and the factors driving home prices. As additional support for moderation in the home price increases, April has reinforced the materials price factors raising prices for home builders and either hurting builders’ profits or pushing new home prices […]
So you thought you were looking at all the houses available in your price range and where you want to buy? Pocket listings by real estate agents prove you wrong. These have been around for years. Also called whisper listings today, this unethical practice persists among many real estate agents. Buyers frequently speak to many real estate agents and provide […]
Rate locks continue to be a source of frustration for many borrowers. They sound like a good idea. Lock your rate for 30 days and any change in interest rates doesn’t affect you. Some lenders may offer a rate lock of 45 days or even 60 days. The loan officer may ask if you want to lock the rate at […]
If you have some regrets about buying your home, you have a lot of company. Prior studies and surveys published by multiple companies arrived at similar regret statistics. Bankrate breaks this down further to reflect that millennials voice regrets in greater numbers than other population groups. According to Bankrate, nearly two-thirds of millennials expressed at least one regret. Less than […]
One of the common complaints voiced by home buyers results from a property tax surprise. These come in a few different flavors. However, the most common surprise results from a change in valuation by the taxing jurisdictions. This may occur in the year of purchase. But more commonly, it arises in the year after purchase. Many real estate agents rely […]
The average price of homes sold reportedly jumped to about $375,000 by the end of April 2021. This represents a 22% gain over the prior 12 months. But this doesn’t mean that the average home increased in price by 22%. In fact, the average price gain comes from the fact that a greater share of homes sold were luxury homes […]
Is there an unhealthy housing market brewing? The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported March’s existing-home sales at 6.01 million. Comparisons to March 2020 may not be valid due to the start of Covid, but the year-over-year growth reflected an increase of 12.3%. This is unusually high and likely an outlier, but is consistent with the interest rate driven buying. Ongoing […]
Do your property taxes equal your loan payment for principal and interest? Do they exceed the loan payment? That’s question wasn’t even on the radar earlier. One of the major considerations in buying the right house is the total monthly payment. Obviously a buyer is looking for the right house – architecture, location, number of bedrooms, yard or not, and […]
Chances are a buyer knows nothing about the potential flood risk on the home the buyer fell in love with and the one on which an offer has been made. Some real estate agents’ websites may provide a note as to the flood zone for listed properties, but is it accurate? What does the letter for the flood zone mean? […]
Many stories in the news recently credit a spike in home sales and home sale prices to the pandemic. The theme consistently refers to Work From Home job moves from high cost locations to suburban or remote locations. Clearly, moving from high cost, high density housing or rentals to a larger home provides more space. A more relaxed location with […]
Would you like to know when an advantageous mortgage window opens? Did you miss the historic low rates at the end of 2020 and into early 2021? It benefited well those who were re-financing. But many new buyers paid premium prices or bid up prices to buy a home. Get prepared for the upcoming advantageous window! Now may be the […]
Since the beginning of 2020, building material costs have skyrocketed and driven up the cost to build new homes and apartments. The increase caused builders to increase new home sale prices. As a result, new home prices were bid higher and this spilled over to higher price bidding on existing homes. What happens when the market stabilizes? For example, lumber […]
Zillow surfing has become a past time during the pandemic. Many buyers have been making offers based on Zillow estimates. Does this sound like a bad idea? Zillow thought its numbers were Gospel and began buying homes for itself. That created a loss for Zillow of about $1 billion in about a year. Probably a good indicator how much trust […]
UPDATE: The CFPB in April 2021 rescinded consumer friendly rules put in place for Covid 19 and during a shortage of appraisers. There is a real risk of appraisal delays killing deal financing, delaying deals, or causing thousands in extra costs for borrowers. In our prior post on FOMO, we covered just what FOMO is and how it might be […]
Rent control has been used in a number of cities by politicians claiming to want to provide affordable housing to those who cannot afford to buy. The question of good or bad policy rests on where you fall — in or out of a rent controlled apartment. Those whose rent is capped experience a lower overall cost to rent over […]
Building permits and housing affordability go hand in hand. Without building, increasing population has nowhere to live. Build less housing than is needed and prices skyrocket quickly. Build too many homes and prices remain flat. Areas with unfriendly building departments concentrate on the west coast and northeast. Cities such as LA, San Francisco, Boston, and Portland actively discourage much building […]
The current supply of housing for sale is at one of the lowest points in recent history. Some estimates put it in a 1-2 month range instead of a typical 6 months. In prior posts, we’ve discussed the record high prices of lumber due to shortages having an effect to delay new homes. However, there have been other spikes in […]
Many who could work from home discovered they could work from home in a different location. One which costs less. One which had more room. As a result, large cities like San Francisco and New York saw an outflow of mobile workers. Many were looking to move to better manage finances or acquire additional space from which to work. Both […]
Thank you for the 10s of thousands of page views, all the book purchases and the positive comments/feedback from following the book. Congratulations to everyone who saved thousands on the mortgage and planned well with our book. To close out the year, Winning Mortgage, Winning Home is discounted for Christmas and the holidays! Go to Amazon with your recipient’s email […]
UPDATED. Each month and each year, the Bureau of Labor Statistics tracks and publishes inflation data. This data then creates the annual Cost of Living Adjustment for Social Security recipients and Social Security taxes on workers. COLA (Cost of Living Adjustment) represents increases in Social Security payments to retirees as well as adjustments to other items. For workers, the actual […]
Many first time borrowers are challenged by student debt racked up recently or even a decade or more in the past. Winning Mortgage, Winning Home outlines how student loan payments fit both in the actual budget and in the lender’s calculated underwriting. HUD announced on June 18 that it will change the way lenders underwrite student debt. The changes become […]
Failure of lenders to close on time frustrates many borrowers. This failure to close on time can be found in our summary of frequent borrower complaints. Many reasons account for delays in closing on time. But home buyers can be hardest hit when closing delays occur. Purchase contracts have deadlines for financing and closing. Missing those deadlines can create significant […]
Pessimistic home buyers find limited supply and high prices while looking for a new home. According to a recent survey by Fannie Mae, buyers are the most pessimistic in a decade and moderate income buyers expressed the most frustration. These are buyers with household income between $50,000 and $100,000. Winning Mortgage, Winning Home provides examples of home buying steps and […]
The Federal Reserve has telegraphed it wants to rein in its continuing massive asset purchases. It may begin in 2022 or perhaps as early as November 2021. Note that doesn’t mean unwinding the $8.5 trillion of money it has pumped into the economy. This $8.5 trillion propped up and inflated asset prices of everything over the past decade. The list […]
Adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs) move up and down in popularity depending on the level of interest rates. Many choose an ARM such as a 7 year or a 5 year because they don’t expect to be in a home for a long period. These two loans have a period where the interest rate is fixed (7 years or 5 years, […]